Democratic
New Mexico › New Mexico House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Mexico House District 50
Boses is very likely to win: Boses wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Boses (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Brennan (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+29.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+20 to D+39
- Partisan lean
- D+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Boses is very likely to win: Boses wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Boses (D)
99%
chance of winning
Brennan (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+30.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+18 to D+44
- Partisan lean
- D+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Kenneth Donald Brennan
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Mexico state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.8 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.47 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+25: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 30,538
- People per km²
- 10
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 28%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 11%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
19,526 votes · D+23.2✓ Matthew Mcqueen (D)61.6%
Kenneth Donald Brennan (R)38.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
19,377 two-party votes · D+25.2 · D+26.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)62.6%
Donald Trump (R)37.4%
2022
11,986 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Matthew McQueen (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
16,622 votes · D+8.6✓ Matthew McQueen (D)52.4%
Christina L Estrada (R)44.0%
Jerry D Gage (—)3.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
19,243 two-party votes · D+25.6 · D+21.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)62.8%
Donald Trump (R)37.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,110 two-party votes · D+30.2 · D+28.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.1%
Donald Trump (R)34.9%