DemocraticIncumbent
Pamelya Herndon
Incumbent state representative
- Experience
- State legislature
New Mexico › New Mexico House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Mexico House District 28
Herndon is very likely to win: Herndon wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Herndon (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Olson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+23.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Herndon is very likely to win: Herndon wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Herndon (D)
98%
chance of winning
Olson (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+22.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+35
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Brenda J. Olson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Mexico state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.93 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.17 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.17 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 36,493
- People per km²
- 2,157
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 51%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 57%
- Hispanic 28%
- Black 3%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
16,809 votes · D+11.9✓ Pamelya P. Herndon (D)55.9%
Marcie M. May (R)44.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
17,011 two-party votes · D+16.2 · D+17.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)58.1%
Donald Trump (R)41.9%
2022
14,435 votes · D+4.6✓ Pamelya P Herndon (D)52.3%
Nicole Chavez (R)47.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
16,940 votes · D+10.2✓ Melanie Ann Stansbury (D)52.6%
Thomas Ray Stull (R)42.8%
Robert Jason Vaillancourt (—)4.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
17,810 two-party votes · D+13.9 · D+9.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.0%
Donald Trump (R)43.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,834 two-party votes · D+2.9 · D+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%