DemocraticIncumbent
New Hampshire › New Hampshire State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire State Senate District 4
Watters is very likely to win: Watters wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Watters (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Mickelonis (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+23.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+15 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Watters is very likely to win: Watters wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Watters (D)
99%
chance of winning
Mickelonis (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+23.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+36
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Shawn Mickelonis
Former State Representative and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.9 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.51 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.51 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 57,590
- People per km²
- 233
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 2%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
32,528 votes · D+21.0✓ David H Watters (D)60.5%
Shawn Mickelonis (R)39.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
33,592 two-party votes · D+21.5 · D+23.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.7%
Donald Trump (R)39.3%
2022
50,172 votes · D+26.6✓ David H Watters (D)63.3%
Seamus Casey (R)36.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
31,362 votes · D+22.7✓ David H Watters (D)61.3%
Frank Bertone (R)38.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
32,372 two-party votes · D+23.7 · D+19.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)61.9%
Donald Trump (R)38.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
27,489 two-party votes · D+15.7 · D+13.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.9%
Donald Trump (R)42.1%