DemocraticIncumbent
New Hampshire › New Hampshire State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire State Senate District 5
Prentiss is very likely to win: Prentiss wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Prentiss (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Schoeffter (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+40.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+31 to D+50
- Partisan lean
- D+40
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Prentiss is very likely to win: Prentiss wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Prentiss (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Schoeffter (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+39.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+28 to D+53
- Partisan lean
- D+40
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Conrad Schoeffter
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.48 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.17 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.17 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+40: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 62,457
- People per km²
- 38
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 56%
- White, no degree
- 40%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
34,779 votes · D+32.6✓ Suzanne M Prentiss (D)66.2%
John J McIntyre (R)33.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
35,945 two-party votes · D+39.4 · D+40.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)69.7%
Donald Trump (R)30.3%
2022
55,850 votes · D+38.0✓ Suzanne M Prentiss (D)69.0%
John McIntyre (R)31.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
30,733 votes · D+33.0✓ Suzanne M Prentiss (D)66.4%
Timothy Ohearne (R)33.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
35,456 two-party votes · D+43.2 · D+38.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)71.6%
Donald Trump (R)28.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
32,717 two-party votes · D+37.9 · D+35.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)69.0%
Donald Trump (R)31.0%