Democratic
Maryland › Maryland State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland Legislative District 1
McKay is very likely to win: McKay wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Emerick (D)
<1%
chance of winning
McKay (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+38.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+48 to R+29
- Partisan lean
- R+49
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McKay is very likely to win: McKay wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Emerick (D)
<1%
chance of winning
McKay (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+42.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+55 to R+30
- Partisan lean
- R+49
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mike McKay
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maryland state offices
- +1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.39 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.49 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.49 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+49: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 137,205
- People per km²
- 41
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 22%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 6%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
65,793 two-party votes · R+45.4 · R+43.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)72.7%
Kamala Harris (D)27.3%
2022
45,331 votes · R+47.0✓ Mike McKay (R)73.4%
Michael Dreisbach (D)26.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
78,578 two-party votes · R+45.3 · R+49.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)72.7%
Joe Biden (D)27.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
35,559 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ George C Edwards (R)98.3%
Writein (—)1.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
70,487 two-party votes · R+52.3 · R+54.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)23.9%
2014 Earlier district lines
30,374 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ George C Edwards (R)100.0%