99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Maryland · Maryland Legislative District 1 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Mike McKay

RepublicanIncumbent

2026 race · Maryland Legislative District 1

>99% chance of winning · race rated Solid R

<1%>99%

>99% chance of winning · race rated Solid R

<1%>99%
● Ashley Emerick● Mike McKayINC
Full race forecast

Background

Current office
Maryland State Senate, LD-1
Experience
State legislature
Past races on file
4 (4 won)

Links: Candidate list (source)

Electoral history

Earlier races in Maryland, newest first, matched by name in the results archive.

  1. 2022

    State Senate · LD-1 Nov 8, 2022

    R · 73.5% · 33,258 votes

    Won
  2. 2018

    House of Delegates · HD-1C Nov 6, 2018

    R · 82.5% · 10,228 votes

    Won
  3. 2014

    House of Delegates · HD-1C Nov 4, 2014

    R · 57.1% · 6,388 votes

    Won
  4. 2014

    House of Delegates · HD-1C primary · Jun 24, 2014

    R · 56.2% · 1,568 votes

    Won

Opponents in 2026