Democratic
Maryland › Maryland State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland Legislative District 5
Ready is very likely to win: Ready wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Foote (D)
1%
chance of winning
Ready (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+24.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+35 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ready is very likely to win: Ready wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Foote (D)
3%
chance of winning
Ready (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+19.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Justin Ready
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maryland state offices
- +1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.87 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -32.15 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+25: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 130,028
- People per km²
- 152
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 5%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
75,442 two-party votes · R+22.0 · R+20.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.0%
Kamala Harris (D)39.0%
2022
41,082 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Justin Ready (R)96.1%
Other Write-Ins (—)3.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
68,789 two-party votes · R+21.7 · R+26.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.9%
Joe Biden (D)39.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
55,370 votes · R+43.1✓ Justin Ready (R)71.5%
Jamie Omarr (D)28.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
61,592 two-party votes · R+34.1 · R+36.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.0%
2014 Earlier district lines
47,609 votes · R+57.1✓ Joseph M Getty (R)78.6%
Anita Riley (D)21.4%