DemocraticIncumbent
Illinois › Illinois House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois Representative District 44
Crespo is very likely to win: Crespo wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Crespo (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Black (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+33.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+45
- Partisan lean
- D+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Crespo is very likely to win: Crespo wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Crespo (D)
99%
chance of winning
Black (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+25.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+13 to D+38
- Partisan lean
- D+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Ralph Black
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Illinois state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.59 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 104,831
- People per km²
- 1,712
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 39%
- Hispanic 32%
- Black 6%
- Asian 19%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
25,918 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Fred Crespo (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
36,757 two-party votes · D+15.6 · D+17.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.8%
Donald Trump (R)42.2%
2022
22,322 votes · D+27.2✓ Fred Crespo (D)63.6%
Patrick Thomas Brouillette (R)36.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
31,539 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Fred Crespo (D)99.0%
Writein (—)1.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
41,083 two-party votes · D+28.9 · D+24.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)64.5%
Donald Trump (R)35.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
34,751 two-party votes · D+32.5 · D+30.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)66.2%
Donald Trump (R)33.8%