DemocraticIncumbent
Illinois › Illinois House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois Representative District 97
Heitman is very likely to win: Heitman wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Heitman (D)
97%
chance of winning
Shanahan (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+14.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Heitman is clearly favored to win: Heitman wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Heitman (D)
89%
chance of winning
Shanahan (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+12.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Gabby Shanahan
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Illinois state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.02 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 117,746
- People per km²
- 685
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 32%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 10%
- Asian 12%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
52,745 votes · D+4.4✓ Harry Benton (D)52.2%
Gabby Shanahan (R)47.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
52,499 two-party votes · D+4.5 · D+6.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.3%
Donald Trump (R)47.7%
2022
35,027 votes · D+3.3✓ Harry Benton (D)51.7%
Michelle Smith (R)48.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
61,933 votes · R+4.1✓ Mark Batinick (R)52.0%
Harry Benton (D)48.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
53,024 two-party votes · D+10.4 · D+5.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.2%
Donald Trump (R)44.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
41,677 two-party votes · D+6.6 · D+4.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.3%
Donald Trump (R)46.7%