DemocraticIncumbent
Illinois › Illinois House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois Representative District 18
Gabel is very likely to win: Gabel wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Gabel (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Donaghue (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+68.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+59 to D+79
- Partisan lean
- D+69
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Gabel is very likely to win: Gabel wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Gabel (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Donaghue (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+74.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+61 to D+88
- Partisan lean
- D+69
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Pete Donaghue
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Illinois state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.13 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -8.67 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -8.67 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+69: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 105,922
- People per km²
- 2,733
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 73%
- White, no degree
- 11%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 10%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
51,645 votes · D+57.9✓ Robyn Gabel (D)79.0%
Charles Hutchinson (R)21.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
51,625 two-party votes · D+68.8 · D+70.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)84.4%
Donald Trump (R)15.6%
2022
40,350 votes · D+62.6✓ Robyn Gabel (D)81.3%
Charles Hutchinson (R)18.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
60,306 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Robyn Gabel (D)72.3%
Sean Matlis (—)27.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
56,191 two-party votes · D+70.2 · D+65.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)85.1%
Donald Trump (R)14.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
50,483 two-party votes · D+70.8 · D+68.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)85.4%
Donald Trump (R)14.6%