Democratic
Illinois › Illinois House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois Representative District 84
Haider is very likely to win: Haider wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Haider (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Scopa (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+40.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+50
- Partisan lean
- D+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Haider is very likely to win: Haider wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Haider (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Scopa (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+35.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+48
- Partisan lean
- D+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Brian Scopa
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Illinois state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.44 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+29: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 100,756
- People per km²
- 1,324
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 52%
- White, no degree
- 22%of adults
- White 43%
- Hispanic 20%
- Black 13%
- Asian 20%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
34,284 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Stephanie A Kifowit (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
41,436 two-party votes · D+27.7 · D+29.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)63.8%
Donald Trump (R)36.2%
2022
29,232 votes · D+31.5✓ Stephanie A Kifowit (D)65.7%
Joe West (R)34.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
37,152 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Stephanie A Kifowit (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
46,210 two-party votes · D+34.7 · D+30.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)67.4%
Donald Trump (R)32.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
37,622 two-party votes · D+31.0 · D+28.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.5%
Donald Trump (R)34.5%