Democratic
Lori Hickman
Attorney
- Experience
- No elected office
Idaho › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Idaho Attorney General
Labrador is very likely to win: Labrador wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hickman (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Labrador (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+27.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+35 to R+20
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- 1in our database
Labrador is very likely to win: Labrador wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hickman (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Labrador (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Raúl Labrador
Incumbent attorney general (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Idaho state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.3Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 14.41 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 14.41 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Hickman | Labrador | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research for John Stegner, an independent running for governor | Jul 28–Jul 30 | 1,213 LV | 31 | 49 | R+18 | R+23.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 30, 2026.
The state
Lean R+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 1,934,262
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 54%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
880,218 two-party votes · R+37.5 · R+36.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.8%
Kamala Harris (D)31.2%
2022
1,173,968 votes · R+25.2✓ Raul Labrador (R)62.6%
Tom Arkoosh (D)37.4%
2020 President Vote in this state
841,140 two-party votes · R+31.8 · R+36.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.9%
Joe Biden (D)34.1%
2018
588,074 votes · R+30.9✓ Lawrence Wasden (R)65.4%
Bruce S Bistline (D)34.6%
2016 President Vote in this state
598,820 two-party votes · R+36.6 · R+38.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.7%