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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Idaho › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Idaho Secretary of State

McGrane is very likely to win: McGrane wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Keenan (D)
<1%
chance of winning
McGrane (R)
>99%
Average margin
R+30.0
80% of outcomes
R+38 to R+22
Partisan lean
R+36
Polls
No pollsmodel only

McGrane is very likely to win: McGrane wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Keenan (D)
1%
chance of winning
McGrane (R)
99%
Average margin
R+28.9
80% of outcomes
R+42 to R+16
Partisan lean
R+36
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

R+30.0R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
R+28.9R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Keenan <1%McGrane >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Keenan 1%McGrane 99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Idaho state offices
−0.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+9.1Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+28.4Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+29.9Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Idaho and look-alikeplacesR+30.1Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+29.9Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+28.9

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge-1
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-5.25
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation-5.25

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The state

Lean R+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+36.6R+38.8 vs. nation2020 presidentR+31.8R+36.3 vs. nation2024 presidentR+37.5R+36.0 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
1,934,262
Adults with a B.A.+
32%
White, no degree
54%of adults
  • White 79%
  • Hispanic 14%
  • Black 1%
  • Asian 1%
  • Other / multiracial 6%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

880,218 two-party votes · R+37.5 · R+36.0 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)68.8%
Kamala Harris (D)31.2%

2022

1,157,922 votes · R+44.9
✓ Phil McGrane (R)72.1%
Shawn Keenan (D)27.4%

2020 President Vote in this state

841,140 two-party votes · R+31.8 · R+36.3 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)65.9%
Joe Biden (D)34.1%

2018

592,691 votes · R+25.1
✓ Lawerence E Denney (R)62.5%
Jill Humble (D)37.5%

2016 President Vote in this state

598,820 two-party votes · R+36.6 · R+38.8 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)68.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.7%

Also on the ballot in Idaho

U.S. SenateTodd AchillesJim Risch99%Rep.99%Rep. GovernorTerri PickensBrad Little99%Rep.99%Rep.