Democratic
Idaho › Idaho State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Idaho Legislative District 15
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (71%).
Gregory is favored to win: Gregory wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Gregory (D)
71%
chance of winning
Burbank (R)
29%
- Average margin
- D+3.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (47% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Gregory (D)
47%
chance of winning
Burbank (R)
53%
- Average margin
- R+0.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Desi Burbank
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Idaho state offices
- −0.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.32 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.18 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 53,542
- People per km²
- 1,533
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 1%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
24,780 votes · R+3.7✓ Codi Galloway (R)51.8%
Rick Just (D)48.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
24,562 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+3.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Kamala Harris (D)47.3%
2022
18,472 votes · D+1.8✓ Rick Just (D)49.8%
Codi Galloway (R)48.0%
Sarah A Clendenon (CST)2.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
22,663 votes · R+6.0✓ Fred S Martin (R)53.0%
Rick Just (D)47.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
25,447 two-party votes · R+5.2 · R+9.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.6%
Joe Biden (D)47.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
18,320 two-party votes · R+16.8 · R+19.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.6%