Democratic
Oklahoma › Oklahoma House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oklahoma House District 75
Marti is favored to win: Marti wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Watkins (D)
31%
chance of winning
Marti (R)
69%
- Average margin
- R+3.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Marti is clearly favored to win: Marti wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Watkins (D)
16%
chance of winning
Marti (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+9.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
T. J. Marti
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Oklahoma state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.36 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 41,322
- People per km²
- 1,038
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 32%of adults
- White 44%
- Hispanic 30%
- Black 10%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 11%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2020 President Vote in this district
12,250 two-party votes · R+15.1 · R+19.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.6%
Joe Biden (D)42.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
10,538 votes · R+11.0✓ T J Marti (R)53.4%
Karen Gaddis (D)42.9%
Kelli Krebs (L)3.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
12,804 votes · R+19.1✓ Dan Kirby (R)59.6%
Karen Gaddis (D)40.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
10,088 two-party votes · R+26.3 · R+28.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.9%