Democratic
Nick Coffey
Former assistant U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Oklahoma
- Experience
- No elected office
Oklahoma › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oklahoma Attorney General
Echols is very likely to win: Echols wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Coffey (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Echols (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+24.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+33 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- 1in our database
Echols is very likely to win: Echols wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Coffey (D)
1%
chance of winning
Echols (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+22.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Jon Echols
State representative from the 90th district (2012–2024)
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Oklahoma state offices
- −0.2Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.3Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -18.26 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Coffey | Echols | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHS & Associates | Aug 3–Aug 6 | 500 RV | 34 | 52 | R+18 | R+19.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 6, 2026.
The state
Lean R+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 4,028,634
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 7%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 16%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,535,812 two-party votes · R+34.9 · R+33.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.5%
Kamala Harris (D)32.5%
2022
1,074,389 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Gentner F Drummond (R)73.8%
Lynda Steele (L)26.2%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,524,170 two-party votes · R+33.9 · R+38.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.9%
Joe Biden (D)33.1%
2018
1,172,468 votes · R+28.1✓ Mike Hunter (R)64.0%
Mark Myles (D)36.0%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,369,511 two-party votes · R+38.6 · R+40.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.7%