Democratic
Oklahoma › Oklahoma House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oklahoma House District 82
Miller is clearly favored to win: Miller wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Headd (D)
11%
chance of winning
Miller (R)
89%
- Average margin
- R+9.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Miller is clearly favored to win: Miller wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Headd (D)
8%
chance of winning
Miller (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+14.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Nicole Miller
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Oklahoma state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.88 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 53,214
- People per km²
- 1,031
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 61%
- White, no degree
- 25%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 9%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 12%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2020 President Vote in this district
14,556 two-party votes · R+20.4 · R+25.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.2%
Joe Biden (D)39.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
20,220 votes · R+32.3✓ Nicole Miller (R)66.1%
Oraynab Jwayyed (D)33.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
22,348 votes · R+30.2✓ Kevin Calvey (R)60.2%
Misty Warfield (D)32.3%
Christopher J Crawford (I)5.5%
David Dickerson (I)2.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
12,402 two-party votes · R+32.4 · R+34.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.8%