Democratic
Kelly Forbes
Consultant and educator
- Experience
- No elected office
Oklahoma › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oklahoma Lieutenant Governor
Shannon is very likely to win: Shannon wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Forbes (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Shannon (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+22.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+31 to R+15
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- 1in our database
Shannon is very likely to win: Shannon wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Forbes (D)
1%
chance of winning
Shannon (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+22.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+33 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
T. W. Shannon
Former Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives (2013–2014) from the 62nd district (2007–2015) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014 and 2022
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Oklahoma state offices
- −0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.44 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Forbes | Shannon | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHS & Associates | Aug 3–Aug 6 | 500 RV | 34 | 51 | R+17 | R+18.9 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 6, 2026.
The state
Lean R+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 4,028,634
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 7%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 16%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,535,812 two-party votes · R+34.9 · R+33.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.5%
Kamala Harris (D)32.5%
2022
1,146,992 votes · R+35.3✓ Matt Pinnell (R)64.9%
Melinda L Alizadeh-Fard (D)31.0%
Chris Powell (L)4.1%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,524,170 two-party votes · R+33.9 · R+38.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.9%
Joe Biden (D)33.1%
2018
1,178,190 votes · R+28.4✓ Matt Pinnell (R)61.9%
Anastasia A Pittman (D)34.5%
Ivan Holmes (OTH)3.6%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,369,511 two-party votes · R+38.6 · R+40.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.7%