Staggered terms in both chambers
Senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Each election covers about half the districts (the odd-numbered ones in 2026), with the senator and both representatives elected together.
North Dakota › North Dakota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Dakota Legislative District 29
2 seatsHeadland is very likely to win: Headland wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Norris (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Headland (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+37.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+47 to R+28
- Partisan lean
- R+50
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Headland is very likely to win: Headland wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Norris (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Headland (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+44.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+57 to R+31
- Partisan lean
- R+50
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.0 D · 2.0 R expected of 2 seats
0.0 D · 2.0 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Two representatives per district
Each of the 47 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 4 and 9 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Dianne Norris
Republican
Kevin Wolsky
RepublicanIncumbent
Craig Headland
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.27 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+50: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 19,529
- People per km²
- 2
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 66%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
8,785 two-party votes · R+50.0 · R+48.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)75.0%
Kamala Harris (D)25.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
10,552 votes · R+45.8✓ Don Vigesaa (R)44.2%
✓ Craig Headland (R)39.3%
Charles Linderman (D)16.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
8,378 two-party votes · R+48.1 · R+52.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)74.1%
Joe Biden (D)25.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
12,225 votes · R+32.9✓ Chet Pollert (R)34.3%
✓ Craig Headland (R)31.3%
Lori Carlson (D)17.3%
Mary Schlosser (D)17.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,631 two-party votes · R+46.9 · R+49.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)26.5%
2014 Earlier district lines
10,822 votes · R+24.8✓ Chet Pollert (R)32.5%
✓ Craig Headland (R)29.7%
Lori Carlson (D)19.6%
Charles Linderman (D)18.2%