Staggered terms in both chambers
Senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Each election covers about half the districts (the odd-numbered ones in 2026), with the senator and both representatives elected together.
North Dakota › North Dakota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Dakota Legislative District 25
2 seatsProjected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (99%).
Skroch is very likely to win: Skroch wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mitskog (D)
1%
chance of winning
Skroch (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+21.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+37
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (100%).
Skroch is very likely to win: Skroch wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mitskog (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Skroch (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+30.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+44 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+37
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.0 D · 2.0 R expected of 2 seats
0.0 D · 2.0 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Two representatives per district
Each of the 47 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 4 and 9 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Alisa Mitskog
Incumbent state representative
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Terry Goerger
RepublicanIncumbent
Kathy Skroch
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.77 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+37: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 16,584
- People per km²
- 4
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 68%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
8,126 two-party votes · R+38.6 · R+37.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.3%
Kamala Harris (D)30.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
9,531 votes · R+17.3✓ Cindy Beck (R)41.8%
✓ Alisa Mitskog (D)29.4%
Kathy Skroch (R)28.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
7,697 two-party votes · R+33.6 · R+38.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.8%
Joe Biden (D)33.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
11,062 votes · R+8.5✓ Cindy Beck (R)35.4%
✓ Alisa Mitskog (D)29.8%
Rebecca Forness (R)22.9%
Bill Berlin (D)11.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
6,941 two-party votes · R+39.1 · R+41.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.4%
2014 Earlier district lines
9,025 votes · R+16.3✓ Cindy Beck (R)35.4%
✓ Alisa Mitskog (D)25.5%
Bruce Eckre (R)22.9%
Richard W Grosz (D)16.2%