Staggered terms in both chambers
Senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Each election covers about half the districts (the odd-numbered ones in 2026), with the senator and both representatives elected together.
North Dakota › North Dakota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Dakota Legislative District 5
2 seatsLouser is very likely to win: Louser wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Erickson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Louser (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+29.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+39 to R+20
- Partisan lean
- R+40
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Louser is very likely to win: Louser wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Erickson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Louser (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+33.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+47 to R+22
- Partisan lean
- R+40
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.0 D · 2.0 R expected of 2 seats
0.0 D · 2.0 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Two representatives per district
Each of the 47 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 4 and 9 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Kyle Erickson
Democratic
Zach Raknerud
RepublicanIncumbent
Scott Louser
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Roger Brabandt
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.28 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+40: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 23,545
- People per km²
- 1,265
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 59%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
6,876 two-party votes · R+40.5 · R+39.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.3%
Kamala Harris (D)29.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
6,458 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Scott Louser (R)49.9%
✓ Jay Fisher (R)47.9%
Write-In (—)2.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,517 two-party votes · R+38.4 · R+42.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.2%
Joe Biden (D)30.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
8,897 votes · R+34.4✓ Scott Louser (R)42.0%
✓ Jay Fisher (R)37.5%
Zachary Raknerud (D)20.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
6,150 two-party votes · R+44.5 · R+46.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)72.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)27.7%
2014 Earlier district lines
8,826 votes · R+38.1✓ Scott Louser (R)36.8%
✓ Roger Brabandt (R)31.1%
Judy Vendsel (D)16.5%
Heidi Elise Rintoul (D)15.6%