Staggered terms in both chambers
Senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Each election covers about half the districts (the odd-numbered ones in 2026), with the senator and both representatives elected together.
North Dakota › North Dakota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Dakota Legislative District 41
2 seatsProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (64%).
Heidenreich is favored to win: Heidenreich wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Heidenreich (D)
64%
chance of winning
Benson (R)
36%
- Average margin
- D+2.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (50% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Heidenreich (D)
50%
chance of winning
Benson (R)
50%
- Average margin
- Even
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
1.3 D · 0.7 R expected of 2 seats
1.0 D · 1.0 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Two representatives per district
Each of the 47 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 4 and 9 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.3 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 15,248
- People per km²
- 1,106
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 42%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 8%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
8,815 two-party votes · R+8.5 · R+7.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Kamala Harris (D)45.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
10,413 votes · R+17.1✓ Michelle Strinden (R)30.9%
✓ Jorin James Johnson (R)27.0%
Megan Edwardson (D)21.9%
Lillian Jones (D)20.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,746 two-party votes · R+1.3 · R+5.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Joe Biden (D)49.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
12,214 votes · D+0.1✓ Pamela Anderson (D)27.6%
✓ Michelle Strinden (R)27.5%
Brandon Medenwald (D)22.8%
Al Carlson (R)22.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,939 two-party votes · R+14.0 · R+16.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.0%
2014 Earlier district lines
9,689 votes · D+0.9✓ Pamela Anderson (D)27.2%
✓ Al Carlson (R)26.7%
Bette Grande (R)24.2%
Sheila Christensen (D)21.8%