Staggered terms in both chambers
Senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Each election covers about half the districts (the odd-numbered ones in 2026), with the senator and both representatives elected together.
North Dakota › North Dakota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Dakota Legislative District 17
2 seatsSanford is clearly favored to win: Sanford wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Aandal (D)
8%
chance of winning
Sanford (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+10.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Sanford is clearly favored to win: Sanford wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Aandal (D)
11%
chance of winning
Sanford (R)
89%
- Average margin
- R+11.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.2 D · 1.8 R expected of 2 seats
0.3 D · 1.8 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Two representatives per district
Each of the 47 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 4 and 9 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Don Aandal
RepublicanIncumbent
Mark Sanford
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Reed Johnson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.21 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 14,916
- People per km²
- 138
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 50%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 6%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
8,759 two-party votes · R+18.6 · R+17.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.3%
Kamala Harris (D)40.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
6,861 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mark Sanford (R)56.8%
✓ Landon Bahl (R)41.6%
Write-In (—)1.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
7,062 two-party votes · R+15.3 · R+19.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Joe Biden (D)42.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
16,089 votes · R+17.4✓ Mark Sanford (R)31.6%
✓ Mark S Owens (R)25.5%
Monte Gaukler (D)22.2%
Angela Urlacher (D)20.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,937 two-party votes · R+21.4 · R+23.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.3%
2014 Earlier district lines
9,404 votes · R+32.8✓ Mark Sanford (R)43.7%
✓ Mark S Owens (R)34.2%
Edward D Grossbauer (D)22.1%