Staggered terms in both chambers
Senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Each election covers about half the districts (the odd-numbered ones in 2026), with the senator and both representatives elected together.
North Dakota › North Dakota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Dakota Legislative District 23
2 seatsNehring is very likely to win: Nehring wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Casler (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Nehring (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+52.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+63 to R+43
- Partisan lean
- R+69
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Nehring is very likely to win: Nehring wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Casler (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Nehring (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+64.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+78 to R+52
- Partisan lean
- R+69
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.0 D · 2.0 R expected of 2 seats
0.0 D · 2.0 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Two representatives per district
Each of the 47 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 4 and 9 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Mark Casler
Democratic
Michael A Steele
Republican
Corey Johnson
RepublicanIncumbent
Dennis Nehring
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.18 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.31 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.31 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+69: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 18,591
- People per km²
- 37
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 19%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 66%
- Hispanic 17%
- Black 9%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,649 votes · R+68.2✓ Dennis Nehring (R)83.7%
✓ Mark Casler (D)15.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,640 two-party votes · R+70.4 · R+68.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)85.2%
Kamala Harris (D)14.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
2,314 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Scott Dyk (R)54.0%
✓ Nico Rios (R)45.0%
Write-In (—)1.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
3,483 two-party votes · R+64.6 · R+69.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)82.3%
Joe Biden (D)17.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
11,227 votes · R+17.1✓ Don Vigesaa (R)30.5%
✓ Bill Devlin (R)28.8%
Cathy Swenson (D)21.6%
Jessica Dillonhawkes (D)19.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
2,853 two-party votes · R+69.1 · R+71.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)84.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)15.4%