Staggered terms in both chambers
Senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Each election covers about half the districts (the odd-numbered ones in 2026), with the senator and both representatives elected together.
North Dakota › North Dakota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Dakota Legislative District 35
2 seatsKarls is very likely to win: Karls wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Johnson (D)
3%
chance of winning
Karls (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+14.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Karls is very likely to win: Karls wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Johnson (D)
4%
chance of winning
Karls (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+17.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.1 D · 1.9 R expected of 2 seats
0.1 D · 1.9 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Two representatives per district
Each of the 47 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 4 and 9 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Taylor Johnson
Democratic
Lynne M Lafer-Halvorson
Republican
Bill Tveit
RepublicanIncumbent
Karen Karls
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.63 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+25: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 19,227
- People per km²
- 1,478
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 81%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 6%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
7,810 two-party votes · R+25.6 · R+24.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.8%
Kamala Harris (D)37.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
11,300 votes · R+23.3✓ Bob Martinson (R)31.2%
✓ Karen Karls (R)29.9%
Kris Mount (D)19.4%
Don Morrison (D)19.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
8,541 two-party votes · R+21.9 · R+26.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.0%
Joe Biden (D)39.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
13,092 votes · R+14.3✓ Bob Martinson (R)29.1%
✓ Karen Karls (R)28.6%
Rachel Thomason (D)21.8%
Joe Elsberry (D)20.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
8,093 two-party votes · R+34.3 · R+36.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)32.8%
2014 Earlier district lines
11,648 votes · R+11.2✓ Bob Martinson (R)31.0%
✓ Karen Karls (R)27.2%
Tracy Potter (D)24.8%
Darrell Miller (D)17.0%