Top-four primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party; the four with the most votes advance to November.
Alaska › Alaska State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alaska State Senate District S
RCVTop fourProjected flip: Democratic-held seat, the independent favored (97%).
Edgmon is very likely to win: Edgmon wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Edgmon (Ind.)
97%
chance of winning
Deacon (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+18.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+31
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, the independent favored (87%).
Edgmon is clearly favored to win: Edgmon wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Edgmon (Ind.)
87%
chance of winning
Deacon (R)
13%
- Average margin
- D+11.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Ranked-choice voting
Voters rank the finalists. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.
Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Alaska state offices
- +1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+11.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.96 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 34,170
- People per km²
- 0
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 16%
- White, no degree
- 11%of adults
- White 14%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 2%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 70%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
7,715 two-party votes · D+2.4 · D+3.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%
2022
6,854 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Lyman F Hoffman (D)64.7%
Willy Keppel (OTH)34.7%
Write-In (—)0.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,701 two-party votes · D+18.3 · D+13.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.2%
Donald Trump (R)40.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
8,573 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Lyman F Hoffman (D)95.4%
Writein (—)4.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
8,135 two-party votes · D+27.3 · D+25.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)63.6%
Donald Trump (R)36.4%
2014 Earlier district lines
8,727 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Lyman F Hoffman (D)100.0%