Top-four primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party; the four with the most votes advance to November.
Alaska › Alaska House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alaska House District 12
RCVTop fourSchrage is clearly favored to win: Schrage wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Schrage (Ind.)
95%
chance of winning
McDonald (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+14.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Schrage is clearly favored to win: Schrage wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Schrage (Ind.)
83%
chance of winning
McDonald (R)
17%
- Average margin
- D+9.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Ranked-choice voting
Voters rank the finalists. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
IndependentIncumbent
Calvin Schrage
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Jieun McDonald
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Alaska state offices
- +1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+11.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.08 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 16,308
- People per km²
- 505
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 50%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 4%
- Asian 16%
- Other / multiracial 21%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
7,804 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Calvin R Schrage (—)61.0%
Joseph M "joe" Lurtsema (R)39.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
8,228 two-party votes · D+1.3 · D+2.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.7%
Donald Trump (R)49.3%
2022
6,477 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Calvin R Schrage (I)59.0%
Jay McDonald (R)40.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
8,881 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Cathy L Tilton (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,277 two-party votes · D+2.3 · R+2.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,416 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.3%