Top-four primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party; the four with the most votes advance to November.
Alaska › Alaska House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alaska House District 35
RCVTop fourCarrick is very likely to win: Carrick wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Carrick (D)
99%
chance of winning
Rentzel (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+18.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Carrick is clearly favored to win: Carrick wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Carrick (D)
93%
chance of winning
Rentzel (R)
7%
- Average margin
- D+14.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Ranked-choice voting
Voters rank the finalists. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Ashley Carrick
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Jeff Rentzel
Independent
Bridger Terra
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Alaska state offices
- +1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+11.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.27 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.99 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.99 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 21,352
- People per km²
- 5
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 40%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 6%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 20%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
9,113 votes · D+10.8✓ Ashley E Carrick (D)55.4%
Ruben A Jr McNeill (R)44.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
9,280 two-party votes · D+5.3 · D+6.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.6%
Donald Trump (R)47.4%
2022
7,433 votes · D+31.0✓ Ashley E Carrick (D)53.5%
Kevin McKinley (R)28.2%
Ruben A McNeill Jr (R)14.8%
Kieran C Brown (CST)3.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
9,654 votes · D+17.7✓ Jonathan S Kreiss-Tomkins (D)58.9%
Kenny Skaflestad (R)41.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,522 two-party votes · D+9.5 · D+5.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.8%
Donald Trump (R)45.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,913 two-party votes · D+2.2 · Even vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.1%
Donald Trump (R)48.9%