DemocraticIncumbent
Trey Sherwood
Incumbent Representative
- Experience
- State legislature
Wyoming › Wyoming House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wyoming House District 14
Sherwood is clearly favored to win: Sherwood wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Sherwood (D)
92%
chance of winning
Study (R)
8%
- Average margin
- D+11.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Sherwood is favored to win: Sherwood wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Sherwood (D)
65%
chance of winning
Study (R)
35%
- Average margin
- D+3.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Emily Study
Veterans' service officer
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wyoming state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.94 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.94 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 15,156
- People per km²
- 2
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 60%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 2%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,759 votes · D+4.1✓ Trey Sherwood (D)51.9%
Joe Giustozzi (R)47.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,686 two-party votes · R+2.1 · R+0.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Kamala Harris (D)48.9%
2022
3,586 votes · D+9.3✓ Trey Sherwood (D)54.5%
Bryan Shuster (R)45.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,221 votes · D+2.0✓ Trey Sherwood (D)50.9%
Matthew Burkhart (R)48.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,507 two-party votes · D+1.2 · R+3.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.6%
Donald Trump (R)49.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
3,665 two-party votes · R+11.5 · R+13.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.3%