Democratic
Catherine McQueen
Precinct committeewoman
- Experience
- No elected office
Wyoming › Wyoming House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wyoming House District 38
Lien is very likely to win: Lien wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McQueen (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Lien (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+51.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+61 to R+42
- Partisan lean
- R+64
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lien is very likely to win: Lien wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McQueen (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Lien (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+60.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+73 to R+48
- Partisan lean
- R+64
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbentCandidate
Jayme Lien
Incumbent Representative
- Experience
- State legislature
RepublicanCandidate
Robert Hendry
Candidate for state senate in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wyoming state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.66 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.82 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.82 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+64: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,089
- People per km²
- 1
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 62%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
3,401 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jayme Lien (R)95.6%
Write-In (—)4.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
3,840 two-party votes · R+62.3 · R+60.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)81.1%
Kamala Harris (D)18.9%
2022
2,311 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Tom Walters (R)96.6%
Write-In (—)3.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,364 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Tom Walters (R)75.1%
Shawn Johnson (—)24.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,074 two-party votes · R+62.8 · R+67.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)81.4%
Joe Biden (D)18.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
3,881 two-party votes · R+69.1 · R+71.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)84.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)15.5%
Also on the ballot in Wyoming
Neighboring districts
HD-15—Pam Thayer>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-27Theresa LivingstonMartha Lawley>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-28—Roland LuehneR vs R>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-34—Pepper Ottman>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-37Betty EricksonBrian Costello>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-40Mark JonesMarilyn Connolly>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-47—Eamon O'Toole>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-58Keenan MorganBill Allemand>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-59Laurie LongtineJ. R. Riggins>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-62——TBD>99%Rep.>99%Rep.