Democratic
Gavin Lobmeyer
Director of speakers at Cheyenne Young Professionals
- Experience
- No elected office
Wyoming › Wyoming House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wyoming House District 7
Nicholas is very likely to win: Nicholas wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Lobmeyer (D)
3%
chance of winning
Nicholas (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+14.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Nicholas is clearly favored to win: Nicholas wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Lobmeyer (D)
7%
chance of winning
Nicholas (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+14.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbentCandidate
Bob Nicholas
Incumbent Representative
- Experience
- State legislature
RepublicanCandidate
Deb Mutter Shamley
Member of the Wyoming Public Charter Schools Association
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wyoming state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.76 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -10.19 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -10.19 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,306
- People per km²
- 1,146
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,300 votes · R+31.4✓ Bob Nicholas (R)64.9%
Jordan Evans (D)33.9%
Write-In (—)1.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,231 two-party votes · R+18.4 · R+16.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.2%
Kamala Harris (D)40.8%
2022
3,356 votes · R+22.9✓ Bob Nicholas (R)60.9%
Jordan Evans (D)38.2%
Write-In (—)0.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,948 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Sue Wilson (R)97.6%
Writein (—)2.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,612 two-party votes · R+17.2 · R+21.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.6%
Joe Biden (D)41.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,136 two-party votes · R+28.3 · R+30.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.9%