Democratic
Wyoming › Wyoming House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wyoming House District 58
Allemand is very likely to win: Allemand wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Morgan (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Allemand (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+52.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+63 to R+44
- Partisan lean
- R+67
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Allemand is very likely to win: Allemand wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Morgan (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Allemand (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+62.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+76 to R+50
- Partisan lean
- R+67
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbentCandidate
Bill Allemand
Incumbent Representative
- Experience
- State legislature
RepublicanCandidate
Peter Boyter
Mayor of Bar Nunn
- Experience
- Local office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wyoming state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.69 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 9.17 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 9.17 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+67: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,667
- People per km²
- 4
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 19%
- White, no degree
- 74%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 8%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
3,150 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bill Allemand (R)97.0%
Write-In (—)3.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
3,464 two-party votes · R+66.3 · R+64.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)83.1%
Kamala Harris (D)16.9%
2022
2,088 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bill Allemand (R)96.9%
Write-In (—)3.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
3,392 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Patrick Sweeney (R)80.3%
Joseph S Porambo (—)19.0%
Writein (—)0.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
3,625 two-party votes · R+65.1 · R+69.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)82.6%
Joe Biden (D)17.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
3,493 two-party votes · R+70.7 · R+73.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)85.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)14.6%