Two senators per district
Each of the 17 Senate districts has two senators serving staggered four-year terms, so one seat per district is on the ballot each election.
West Virginia › West Virginia State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
West Virginia State Senate District 15
Thorne is very likely to win: Thorne wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ferris (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Thorne (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+31.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+42 to R+23
- Partisan lean
- R+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Thorne is very likely to win: Thorne wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ferris (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Thorne (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+40.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+53 to R+28
- Partisan lean
- R+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override most vetoes; budget and spending bills need two-thirds.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Elizabeth Ferris
RepublicanIncumbent
Darren Thorne
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- West Virginia state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.27 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.64 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+46: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 113,279
- People per km²
- 40
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 68%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 5%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
49,297 votes · R+46.0✓ Thomas "tom" Willis (R)73.0%
Anthony Murray (D)27.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
50,721 two-party votes · R+46.8 · R+45.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.4%
Kamala Harris (D)26.6%
2022
26,285 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Charles S Trump IV (R)80.4%
Robin Mills (OTH)19.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
51,884 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Craig P Blair (R)80.1%
Donald Kinnie (—)19.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
53,168 two-party votes · R+43.9 · R+48.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.9%
Joe Biden (D)28.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
38,409 two-party votes · R+48.2 · R+50.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)74.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)25.9%