Two senators per district
Each of the 17 Senate districts has two senators serving staggered four-year terms, so one seat per district is on the ballot each election.
West Virginia › West Virginia State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
West Virginia State Senate District 17
Takubo is clearly favored to win: Takubo wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Holden (D)
10%
chance of winning
Takubo (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+9.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Takubo is clearly favored to win: Takubo wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Holden (D)
7%
chance of winning
Takubo (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+14.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override most vetoes; budget and spending bills need two-thirds.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Wes Holden
RepublicanIncumbent
Tom Takubo
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- West Virginia state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.77 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.71 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 96,567
- People per km²
- 67
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 62%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
41,903 votes · R+28.5✓ Eric Nelson (R)64.3%
Bil Lepp (D)35.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
43,069 two-party votes · R+21.8 · R+20.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.9%
Kamala Harris (D)39.1%
2022
28,636 votes · R+16.9✓ Tom Takubo (R)58.5%
Samuel Wood (D)41.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
44,214 votes · R+7.3✓ Eric Nelson (R)53.6%
Andrew Robinson (D)46.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
52,102 two-party votes · R+19.7 · R+24.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.9%
Joe Biden (D)40.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
49,434 two-party votes · R+25.7 · R+27.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.2%