Fusion voting
Candidates can run with several party nominations, often Democratic and Progressive (listed as 'Democratic/Progressive'), and their votes count together. The forecast uses the first-listed party.
Vermont › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Vermont Attorney General
FusionClark is very likely to win: Clark wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Clark (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Kemon (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+37.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+46
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Clark is very likely to win: Clark wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Clark (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Kemon (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+35.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+22 to D+48
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Charity Clark
Incumbent attorney general
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Republican
Ed Kemon
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Vermont state offices
- −0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.7 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -6.7 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The state
Lean D+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 647,106
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024
347,158 votes · D+21.8✓ Charity R Clark (D)57.8%
Ture Nelson (R)37.1%
Kevin Gustafson (OTH)4.9%
2024 President Vote in this state
355,186 two-party votes · D+32.8 · D+34.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.4%
Donald Trump (R)33.6%
2022
275,199 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Charity Clark (—)65.1%
Michael Tagliavia (R)34.8%
2020
345,495 votes · D+42.3✓ Tj Donovan (D)67.8%
H Brooke Paige (R)27.5%
Cris Ericson (OTH)4.6%
2020 President Vote in this state
355,524 two-party votes · D+36.6 · D+32.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)68.3%
Donald Trump (R)31.7%
2016 President Vote in this state
273,942 two-party votes · D+30.4 · D+28.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.2%
Donald Trump (R)34.8%