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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Vermont › Vermont House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Vermont House of Representatives: Franklin-4 State House District

2 seatsFusion

Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (42% chance it changes parties).

A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.

Bouchard (D)
42%
chance of winning
Walker (R)
58%
Average margin
R+1.4
80% of outcomes
R+11 to D+8
Partisan lean
R+8
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Walker is favored to win: Walker wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.

Bouchard (D)
30%
chance of winning
Walker (R)
70%
Average margin
R+4.8
80% of outcomes
R+18 to D+8
Partisan lean
R+8
Polls
No pollsmodel only

2 seats in this district

0.9 D · 1.1 R expected of 2 seats

0.6 D · 1.4 R expected of 2 seats

Statewide map: Vermont House of Representatives

How this race is decided

Named multi-member districts

Districts are named after counties and towns ('Chittenden-Central'). Senate districts elect one to three senators and House districts one or two members; voters pick as many as there are seats.

Progressive Party

Vermont's Progressive Party holds legislative seats and caucuses with the Democrats, so its candidates are forecast on the Democratic side and its seats count toward that majority.

Fusion voting

Candidates can run with several party nominations, often Democratic and Progressive (listed as 'Democratic/Progressive'), and their votes count together. The forecast uses the first-listed party.

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

R+1.4R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
R+4.8R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Bouchard 42%Walker 58%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Bouchard 30%Walker 70%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Vermont state offices
−0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
Swing reaching this office
58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
New England adjustment
−2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 58% of the environment andthe New England adjustmentR+3.4Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+1.1Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Vermont and look-alikeplacesR+1.6Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+1.4Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+4.8

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-0.04
Elected-experience edge-0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation30
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation40

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The district

Lean R+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+5.5R+7.7 vs. nation2020 presidentR+1.9R+6.4 vs. nation2024 presidentR+9.8R+8.3 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
6,820
People per km²
26
Adults with a B.A.+
23%
White, no degree
71%of adults
  • White 93%
  • Hispanic 2%
  • Asian 1%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

6,314 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Matthew E. Walker (D)50.8%
✓ Thomas "Tom" Oliver Jr (D)48.3%
Write-Ins (—)0.9%

2024 President Vote in this district

4,356 two-party votes · R+9.8 · R+8.3 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)54.9%
Kamala Harris (D)45.1%

2022

4,442 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Matthew E Walker (R)50.6%
✓ Thomas Oliver (R)49.4%

2020 Earlier district lines

6,322 votes · R+26.7
✓ Brian K Savage (R)38.9%
✓ Robert W Norris (R)38.6%
Nicholas A Brosseau (D)22.5%

2020 President Vote in this district

4,074 two-party votes · R+1.9 · R+6.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)50.9%
Joe Biden (D)49.1%

2016 President Vote in this district

2,971 two-party votes · R+5.5 · R+7.7 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.3%

Also on the ballot in Vermont

GovernorAmanda JanooPhil ScottD flip69%Rep.65%Dem.

Neighboring districts

Franklin-2 State HousePam McCarthyEileen "Lynn" DickinsonD flipD flip96%Dem.87%Dem. Franklin-5 State House—Wayne LarocheR vs R2 seats>99%Rep.>99%Rep. Franklin-6 State House—James Gregoire>99%Rep.>99%Rep. Franklin-7 State House—Allen "Penny" Demar>99%Rep.>99%Rep. Grand Isle-Chittenden State HouseDave SkinnerMichael MorganD flipD flip2 seats90%Dem.96%Dem.