Fusion voting
Candidates can run with several party nominations, often Democratic and Progressive (listed as 'Democratic/Progressive'), and their votes count together. The forecast uses the first-listed party.
Vermont › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Vermont Auditor
FusionAshe is very likely to win: Ashe wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ashe (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Kronick (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+37.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+29 to D+46
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ashe is very likely to win: Ashe wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ashe (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Kronick (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+35.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+22 to D+49
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
Democratic
Tim Ashe
Former president pro tempore of the Vermont Senate (2017–2021) from the Chittenden district (2009–2021) and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Ivar Kronick
Accounts assistant
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Vermont state offices
- −0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.09 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The state
Lean D+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 647,106
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024
341,793 votes · D+21.4✓ Doug Hoffer (D)60.6%
H Brooke Paige (R)39.2%
2024 President Vote in this state
355,186 two-party votes · D+32.8 · D+34.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.4%
Donald Trump (R)33.6%
2020 President Vote in this state
355,524 two-party votes · D+36.6 · D+32.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)68.3%
Donald Trump (R)31.7%
2016
288,253 votes · D+17.0✓ Doug Hoffer (D)55.4%
Dan Feliciano (R)39.3%
Marina Brown (L)5.2%
2016 President Vote in this state
273,942 two-party votes · D+30.4 · D+28.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.2%
Donald Trump (R)34.8%