Democratic
Utah › Utah House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Utah House District 42
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (79%).
Williams is favored to win: Williams wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Williams (D)
79%
chance of winning
Okerlund (R)
21%
- Average margin
- D+6.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (81%).
Williams is clearly favored to win: Williams wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Williams (D)
81%
chance of winning
Okerlund (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+8.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Clint Okerlund
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Utah state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.05 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -8.46 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -8.46 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 38,580
- People per km²
- 1,067
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 53%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 6%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
24,843 votes · R+9.1✓ Clint Okerlund (R)54.5%
Travis Smith (D)45.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
24,732 two-party votes · D+2.7 · D+4.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%
2022
19,936 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Robert Spendlove (R)57.8%
David B Jack (OTH)21.7%
Carson Barlow (I)20.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
23,938 votes · R+23.1✓ Jordan Teuscher (R)58.5%
Samuel Winkler (D)36.5%
Ryan Boudwin (—)4.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
26,893 two-party votes · Even · R+4.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.0%
Joe Biden (D)50.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
18,168 two-party votes · R+6.9 · R+9.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.5%