Cross-party nominations
A candidate can be nominated by several parties, such as Working Families or the Independent Party, and the ballot lists all of them next to one name. The forecast counts the candidate's votes once, under their main party.
Oregon › Oregon State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oregon State Senate District 10
FusionPatterson is very likely to win: Patterson wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Patterson (D)
99%
chance of winning
Plowhead (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+18.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Patterson is clearly favored to win: Patterson wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Patterson (D)
95%
chance of winning
Plowhead (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+16.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Two-thirds quorum
Each chamber needs two-thirds of its members present to do business, so a minority holding more than a third of seats can block votes by walking out. Members with ten unexcused absences in a session cannot run for re-election (Measure 113).
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Deb Patterson
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Angela Plowhead
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Oregon state offices
- −2.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+6.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.81 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.71 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -6.71 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 119,391
- People per km²
- 683
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 69%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
68,222 two-party votes · D+16.1 · D+17.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)58.1%
Donald Trump (R)41.9%
2022
59,943 votes · D+6.9✓ Deb Patterson (D)53.4%
Raquel Moore-Green (R)46.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
77,794 votes · D+0.8✓ Deb Patterson (D)48.5%
Denyc Boles (R)47.8%
Taylor A Rickey (—)3.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
122,860 two-party votes · D+17.2 · D+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.6%
Donald Trump (R)41.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
61,490 votes · R+8.0✓ Jackie F Winters (R)53.9%
Deb Patterson (D)45.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
61,469 two-party votes · D+9.1 · D+6.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.5%
Donald Trump (R)45.5%