99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

North Dakota › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

North Dakota Secretary of State

Howe is very likely to win: Howe wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Braunberger (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Howe (R)
>99%
Average margin
R+27.3
80% of outcomes
R+36 to R+19
Partisan lean
R+37
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Howe is very likely to win: Howe wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Braunberger (D)
1%
chance of winning
Howe (R)
99%
Average margin
R+25.9
80% of outcomes
R+40 to R+12
Partisan lean
R+37
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

R+27.3R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
R+25.9R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60

How this race is decided

Staggered terms in both chambers

Senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Each election covers about half the districts (the odd-numbered ones in 2026), with the senator and both representatives elected together.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Braunberger <1%Howe >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Braunberger 1%Howe 99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
North Dakota state offices
+0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+27.4Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+27.9Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in North Dakota andlook-alike placesR+26.1Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+27.3Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+25.9

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge-0.33
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation3.01
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation3.01

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The state

Lean R+37: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+39.6R+41.8 vs. nation2020 presidentR+34.4R+39.0 vs. nation2024 presidentR+37.4R+35.9 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
784,841
Adults with a B.A.+
33%
White, no degree
57%of adults
  • White 82%
  • Hispanic 5%
  • Black 3%
  • Asian 2%
  • Other / multiracial 9%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

358,832 two-party votes · R+37.4 · R+35.9 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)68.7%
Kamala Harris (D)31.3%

2022

233,828 votes · R+39.4
✓ Michael Howe (R)63.2%
Jeffrey Powell (D)27.5%
Charles Tuttle (OTH)9.2%

2020 President Vote in this state

350,497 two-party votes · R+34.4 · R+39.0 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)67.2%
Joe Biden (D)32.8%

2018

307,277 votes · D+49.6
✓ Alvin A Jaeger (OTH)47.3%
Josh Boschee (D)39.2%
Michael Coachman (R)13.2%

2016 President Vote in this state

310,552 two-party votes · R+39.6 · R+41.8 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)69.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.2%