Staggered terms in both chambers
Senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Each election covers about half the districts (the odd-numbered ones in 2026), with the senator and both representatives elected together.
North Dakota › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Dakota Attorney General
Wrigley is very likely to win: Wrigley wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Lamb (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Wrigley (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+28.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+20
- Partisan lean
- R+37
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Wrigley is very likely to win: Wrigley wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Lamb (D)
1%
chance of winning
Wrigley (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+25.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+40 to R+13
- Partisan lean
- R+37
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
Democratic
Tim Lamb
Attorney from Grand Forks, nominee for auditor in 2024 and for attorney general in 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
RepublicanIncumbent
Drew Wrigley
Incumbent attorney general
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.16 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.16 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The state
Lean R+37: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 784,841
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
358,832 two-party votes · R+37.4 · R+35.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.7%
Kamala Harris (D)31.3%
2022
234,702 votes · R+42.2✓ Drew Wrigley (R)70.9%
Timothy Charles Lamb (D)28.8%
2020 President Vote in this state
350,497 two-party votes · R+34.4 · R+39.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.2%
Joe Biden (D)32.8%
2018
319,217 votes · R+35.4✓ Wayne Stenehjem (R)67.6%
David Clark Thompson (D)32.2%
2016 President Vote in this state
310,552 two-party votes · R+39.6 · R+41.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.2%