Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia State Senate District 31
Anavitarte is very likely to win: Anavitarte wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Miller (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Anavitarte (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+28.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Anavitarte is very likely to win: Anavitarte wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Miller wins Nov 3
1%
Runoff Dec 1
1%
Anavitarte wins Nov 3
99%
Including the runoff: Miller 1% · Anavitarte 99% to win the seat. In a runoff, Anavitarte wins 51% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+26.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+39 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Alec Miller
RepublicanIncumbent
Jason R. Anavitarte
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.31 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -26.82 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -26.82 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+31: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 207,210
- People per km²
- 138
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 21%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
81,415 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jason Anavitarte (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
104,131 two-party votes · R+29.7 · R+28.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.8%
Kamala Harris (D)35.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
57,843 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jason Anavitarte (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
93,166 votes · R+41.7✓ Jason Anavitarte (R)70.9%
Tianna Smith (D)29.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
92,016 two-party votes · R+33.4 · R+38.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.7%
Joe Biden (D)33.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
69,231 two-party votes · R+44.7 · R+46.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)72.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)27.6%