Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia State Senate District 40
Harrell is very likely to win: Harrell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Harrell (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Mast (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+35.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+26 to D+46
- Partisan lean
- D+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Harrell is very likely to win: Harrell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Harrell (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Mast (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+34.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+22 to D+47
- Partisan lean
- D+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Sally Harrell
Republican
Melina R. Mast
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.81 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.8 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.8 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+29: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 191,522
- People per km²
- 1,418
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 59%
- White, no degree
- 11%of adults
- White 43%
- Hispanic 23%
- Black 19%
- Asian 11%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
80,133 votes · D+25.3✓ Sally Harrell (D)62.6%
Amelia K Siamomua (R)37.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
80,992 two-party votes · D+28.3 · D+29.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)64.1%
Donald Trump (R)35.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
64,709 votes · D+23.1✓ Sally Harrell (D)61.6%
Austin McDonald (R)38.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
89,853 votes · D+21.0✓ Sally Harrell (D)60.5%
Garry Guan (R)39.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
82,133 two-party votes · D+29.8 · D+25.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)64.9%
Donald Trump (R)35.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
65,300 two-party votes · D+19.6 · D+17.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.8%
Donald Trump (R)40.2%
Also on the ballot in Georgia
Neighboring districts
SD-5Sheikh Rahman—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-7Ruwa RommanAizaz Shahbaz Shaikh>99%Dem.97%Dem. SD-14Kevin AbelMike Dvorscak>99%Dem.99%Dem. SD-39Sonya HalpernJohn F. Guest, Jr.>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-41Kim JacksonJeff Newlin>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-48Laura MurvartianShawn StillFlip riskFlip riskRunoff 22%55%Dem.58%Dem. SD-55Randal ManghamMary Williams Benefield>99%Dem.>99%Dem.