Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia State Senate District 27
Dudgeon is very likely to win: Dudgeon wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Roper (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Dudgeon (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+32.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+42 to R+23
- Partisan lean
- R+39
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Dudgeon is very likely to win: Dudgeon wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Roper (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Dudgeon (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+32.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+45 to R+20
- Partisan lean
- R+39
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Jessica Roper
Republican
Mike Dudgeon
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.39 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.39 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+39: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 204,971
- People per km²
- 365
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 53%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 66%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 4%
- Asian 13%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
104,791 votes · R+46.5✓ Greg Dolezal (R)73.3%
Hamza Nazir (D)26.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
104,846 two-party votes · R+38.6 · R+37.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.3%
Kamala Harris (D)30.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
78,647 votes · R+47.7✓ Greg Dolezal (R)73.9%
Brent Binion (D)26.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
124,532 votes · R+40.0✓ Greg Dolezal (R)70.0%
Brooke Griffiths (D)30.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
97,378 two-party votes · R+38.5 · R+43.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.2%
Joe Biden (D)30.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
71,233 two-party votes · R+53.8 · R+56.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)23.1%