Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia State Senate District 29
Robertson is very likely to win: Robertson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Lowe wins Nov 3
<1%
Runoff Dec 1
1%
Robertson wins Nov 3
99%
Including the runoff: Lowe 1% · Robertson 99% to win the seat. In a runoff, Lowe wins 50% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+21.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+31 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Robertson is very likely to win: Robertson wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Lowe wins Nov 3
2%
Runoff Dec 1
2%
Robertson wins Nov 3
97%
Including the runoff: Lowe 2% · Robertson 98% to win the seat. In a runoff, Robertson wins 53% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+21.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Jeff Lowe
RepublicanIncumbent
Randy Robertson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.46 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.81 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.81 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+26: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 194,781
- People per km²
- 50
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 40%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 28%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
96,359 votes · R+30.5✓ Randy Robertson (R)65.2%
Ellen T Wright (D)34.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
94,837 two-party votes · R+26.5 · R+25.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.2%
Kamala Harris (D)36.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
72,967 votes · R+32.5✓ Randy Robertson (R)66.2%
Ellen Wright (D)33.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
70,161 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Randy Robertson (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
91,324 two-party votes · R+25.0 · R+29.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.5%
Joe Biden (D)37.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
75,630 two-party votes · R+30.0 · R+32.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.0%