Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia State Senate District 19
Sikes is very likely to win: Sikes wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Wilkerson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Sikes (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+45.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+55 to R+36
- Partisan lean
- R+53
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Sikes is very likely to win: Sikes wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Wilkerson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Sikes (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+48.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+62 to R+36
- Partisan lean
- R+53
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Joshua C. Wilkerson
Republican
David Sikes
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.43 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.91 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+53: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 197,727
- People per km²
- 18
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 14%
- White, no degree
- 54%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 24%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
65,328 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Blake Tillery (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
77,297 two-party votes · R+53.5 · R+52.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.7%
Kamala Harris (D)23.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
57,739 votes · R+57.4✓ Blake Tillery (R)78.7%
Michael Moore (D)21.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
54,197 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Blake Tillery (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
75,153 two-party votes · R+49.6 · R+54.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)74.8%
Joe Biden (D)25.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
66,777 two-party votes · R+52.5 · R+54.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)23.8%