99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Vermont · Vermont House of Representatives: Franklin-4 State House District · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Matthew Walker

RepublicanIncumbent2 seatsFusion

2026 race · Vermont House of Representatives: Franklin-4 State House District

58% chance of winning · race rated Toss-up

42%58%

70% chance of winning · race rated Lean R

30%70%
● Tamar Bouchard● Matthew WalkerINCAlso: Tom Oliver Jr. (R), Carmela Mayette (D)
Full race forecast

Background

Current office
Vermont House of Representatives, HD-F-4
Experience
State legislature
Past races on file
2 (2 won)

Links: Candidate list (source)

Electoral history

Earlier races in Vermont, newest first, matched by name in the results archive.

  1. 2024

    House of Representatives · HD-F-4 Nov 5, 2024

    D · 51.3% · 3,206 votes

    Won
  2. 2022

    House of Representatives · HD-F-4 Nov 8, 2022

    R · 50.6% · 2,249 votes

    Won

Opponents in 2026