Named multi-member districts
Districts are named after counties and towns ('Chittenden-Central'). Senate districts elect one to three senators and House districts one or two members; voters pick as many as there are seats.
Vermont › Vermont House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Vermont House of Representatives: Franklin-3 State House District
FusionProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (99%).
Kenyon is very likely to win: Kenyon wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Kenyon (D)
99%
chance of winning
Luneau (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+22.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+12 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (100%).
Kenyon is very likely to win: Kenyon wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Kenyon (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Luneau (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+35.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+48
- Partisan lean
- D+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Progressive Party
Vermont's Progressive Party holds legislative seats and caucuses with the Democrats, so its candidates are forecast on the Democratic side and its seats count toward that majority.
Fusion voting
Candidates can run with several party nominations, often Democratic and Progressive (listed as 'Democratic/Progressive'), and their votes count together. The forecast uses the first-listed party.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Suzanne Kenyon
RepublicanIncumbent
Joe Luneau
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Vermont state offices
- −0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.25 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -38.12 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+33: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 6,954
- People per km²
- 2,017
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 2%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
2,088 votes · R+8.2✓ Joe Luneau (R)53.9%
Mike McCarthy (D)45.7%
2022
1,610 votes · D+15.0✓ Mike McCarthy (D)57.5%
Joe Luneau (R)42.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
1,981 two-party votes · D+35.4 · D+30.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)67.7%
Donald Trump (R)32.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
1,417 two-party votes · D+22.9 · D+20.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)61.5%
Donald Trump (R)38.5%