DemocraticIncumbent
Utah › Utah House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Utah House District 22
Dailey-Provost is very likely to win: Dailey-Provost wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Dailey-Provost (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Varga (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+63.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+54 to D+73
- Partisan lean
- D+61
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Dailey-Provost is very likely to win: Dailey-Provost wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Dailey-Provost (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Varga (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+67.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+54 to D+80
- Partisan lean
- D+61
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Char Varga
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Utah state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.83 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.84 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.84 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+61: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 44,510
- People per km²
- 429
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 63%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 2%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
19,968 votes · D+59.1✓ Jennifer L Dailey-Provost (D)79.6%
Steve Harmsen (R)20.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
20,177 two-party votes · D+60.3 · D+61.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)80.2%
Donald Trump (R)19.8%
2022
13,467 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jen Dailey-Provost (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,212 votes · D+1.9✓ Clare Collard (D)50.9%
Anthony E Loubet (R)49.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
21,763 two-party votes · D+62.3 · D+57.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)81.2%
Donald Trump (R)18.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
16,216 two-party votes · D+62.5 · D+60.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)81.3%
Donald Trump (R)18.7%