Democratic
Utah › Utah House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Utah House District 13
Craythorne is very likely to win: Craythorne wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Anderson (D)
1%
chance of winning
Craythorne (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+18.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Craythorne is very likely to win: Craythorne wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Anderson (D)
1%
chance of winning
Craythorne (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+24.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Utah state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.15 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.33 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 41,834
- People per km²
- 1,378
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 55%of adults
- White 74%
- Hispanic 17%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
17,243 votes · R+43.7✓ Karen M Peterson (R)71.9%
Lorri Rogers (D)28.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
17,754 two-party votes · R+33.0 · R+31.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.5%
Kamala Harris (D)33.5%
2022
12,450 votes · R+22.8✓ Karen M Peterson (R)61.4%
Tab Lyn Uno (D)38.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
17,100 votes · R+26.3✓ Paul Ray (R)63.1%
Tab Lyn Uno (D)36.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
16,410 two-party votes · R+36.1 · R+40.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.1%
Joe Biden (D)31.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
9,276 two-party votes · R+40.0 · R+42.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.0%